Introduction
For prediction market enthusiasts, OpenClaw runs Polymarket Autopilot: paper trading simulations that analyze volume spikes and arbitrage spreads, execute "trades" in a local database, and deliver daily performance logs to Discord. No real money at risk — pure strategy testing and learning. Before you put capital on real prediction markets, you can validate your approach with simulated trades. The agent does the monitoring; you decide when to go live.
This use case is part of the Awesome OpenClaw Use Cases repo. It's popular among traders who want to test strategies without the emotional and financial risk of real execution. The agent runs on a Heartbeat — typically every 15–30 minutes — to catch opportunities as they emerge. Prediction markets move fast. News breaks. Prices shift. Arbitrage windows open and close. A human can't monitor 24/7. An agent can. The Polymarket Autopilot gives you that monitoring capability without the risk of real capital.
The use case exemplifies outcome-based automation: you define the outcome ("identify and log trading opportunities") and the agent executes. You're not telling it which specific markets to watch or which thresholds to use — you configure strategy parameters, and the agent applies them. Over time, you refine based on the paper trading results. When the simulated performance looks good, you can consider real trading. But that's always a separate, human decision. OpenClaw doesn't execute real trades. The Autopilot is strictly paper.
Prediction markets are fascinating for strategy testing. They're liquid. They're real-time. They reflect information as it emerges. But putting real money on them without validation is reckless. The Polymarket Autopilot lets you run the strategy in simulation. You see the paper trades. You see the outcomes. You see whether your volume-spike logic actually works, or whether your arbitrage opportunities close before you could execute. The agent gives you data. You make the call about real capital. It's the right division of labor.
How It Works
The agent monitors Polymarket (or similar prediction markets) via API. It tracks: price movements, volume spikes, cross-market arbitrage opportunities. Runs paper trades based on configurable rules — e.g., "if volume spikes 2x and price moves 5%, simulate a buy." Logs outcomes to SQLite. Daily summary lands in Discord: "Today: 5 paper trades, 3 wins, +12% simulated. Best: X. Worst: Y." You review the log. You decide if the strategy is worth real money.
The key: everything is simulated. No real orders. No real capital. The agent writes to a local database. You're testing logic, not risking money. The agent's workflow: (1) Fetch market data via Polymarket API. (2) Apply strategy rules — volume thresholds, price movement thresholds, arbitrage spread thresholds. (3) When conditions are met, "execute" a paper trade — record in SQLite: market, side, price, size, timestamp. (4) Track outcomes — did the price move in our favor? (5) At end of day, generate summary. (6) Post summary to Discord. You wake up, check Discord, see "5 paper trades, 3 wins, +12%." You didn't lose sleep. You didn't lose money. You got data.
The Heartbeat drives the cycle. Every 15-30 minutes, the agent runs. It checks markets. It evaluates strategy. It logs paper trades. It doesn't need to run faster — prediction markets don't move in seconds the way HFT markets do. The 15-30 minute interval captures most opportunities without excessive API usage. You can tune the interval based on your strategy and API limits. The architecture is simple: Heartbeat triggers agent, agent runs strategy logic, agent logs to DB, agent posts summary. No complexity. No real money. Just learning.
Analysis
Volume spikes may indicate new information hitting the market. Arbitrage: the same event listed on different platforms with different prices — buy low on one, sell high on another. The agent identifies these and "executes" paper trades. Over time, you evaluate strategy effectiveness. Did the volume-spike strategy work? Did arbitrage opportunities actually close? The data tells you before you risk a dollar.
The analysis dimension is where the agent adds value. A human could manually check Polymarket every few hours. They'd miss most opportunities. The agent checks every 15 minutes. It applies rules consistently. It doesn't get tired. It doesn't get emotional. It logs every "trade" and the outcome. After a week, you have data: "Volume spike strategy: 20 paper trades, 12 wins, 58% win rate, +8% simulated return." After a month, you have statistical significance. You can compare strategies. Volume spike vs arbitrage vs momentum. The agent gives you the data. You make the decision about what to do with it.
Strategy parameters are configurable. Volume spike threshold: 2x average? 3x? Price movement threshold: 5%? 10%? Arbitrage spread: minimum 3%? 5%? You tune these based on paper trading results. Start conservative. If the strategy is too aggressive, you'll get many paper trades but poor win rate. If it's too conservative, you'll get few trades and insufficient data. The agent helps you find the sweet spot. Iterate. Refine. Only when the paper trading looks good do you consider real capital. And even then, start small.
Paper Trading
All trades are simulated — recorded in a local DB, no real orders sent. You review performance, adjust strategy, tune thresholds. When you're confident, you can switch to manual real trading. OpenClaw does not execute real trades without explicit user approval. The Autopilot is strictly paper. Real execution is always a human decision. See finance for the broader context on OpenClaw and financial workflows.
The paper trading discipline is important. It's tempting to go live after a few good days. Don't. Paper trade for at least a month. Preferably longer. Markets have regimes. What works in a calm market may fail in a volatile one. The agent will log regime changes implicitly — you'll see performance shift. Use that data. The goal isn't to get rich quick. It's to validate that your strategy has edge before you risk capital. The Polymarket Autopilot is a tool for that validation. Nothing more. Nothing less.
Setup Overview
You'll need: Polymarket API access (or similar), a Heartbeat configured for the monitoring interval, SQLite for trade logging, and a Discord webhook for daily summaries. The Awesome repo has the full config. Expect a few hours to get it running. Once it's live, the agent runs autonomously — you just check the Discord summary each morning.
Technical requirements: OpenClaw installed, Polymarket API key (or equivalent for your target market), a Skill or custom logic for market data fetching and strategy evaluation, SQLite (or similar) for trade logging, Discord webhook URL for summaries. The Awesome OpenClaw Use Cases repo has a reference implementation. You'll need to adapt it to your strategy parameters and market focus. The setup is straightforward for developers. Non-developers may need to follow a step-by-step guide or get help from the community. See community for Discord support.
Wrapping Up
Polymarket Autopilot is a learning and strategy-testing tool. See crypto trading and Discord for related setups. Test first. Trade later. The agent gives you 24/7 monitoring and consistent strategy execution. You get data. You make the call about real money. That's the right division of labor.